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BLOG: Tracking Tropical Storm Fred

Made landfall Monday afternoon
Tropical Alerts for Fred.PNG
Posted at 2:37 PM, Aug 11, 2021

UPDATE: 5PM Monday, August 16

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall Monday afternoon near Cape Blas on Florida's panhandle shortly at 2:15 p.m. local time with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and moving north-northeast at 9 mph.

Before the storm pulls away to the north early Tuesday, rainfall totals near the Florida Panhandle coast could swell to eight inches with some places approaching a foot, producing areas of flooding.

Through the middle of the week, heavy rain from the storm will sweep inland through the Southeast and the Appalachians, expanding the flood threat.

UPDATE: 12:30 PM Monday, August 16

Tropical Storm Fred became better organized Monday morning and some strengthening is possible before making landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over western Georgia on Tuesday.

Fred has sustained winds of 60 mph and is pushing north at about 10 mph. Through Tuesday, it is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rain to the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas are forecast to get 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches.

Fred Rainfall potential.PNG

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Storm surge is expected from Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL at 3-5 ft, Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL at 2-4 ft and AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft, Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft.

UPDATE: 3 PM Sunday, August 15

Florida’s governor declared a state of emergency for the state’s Panhandle region as Tropical Storm Fred moved through the Gulf of Mexico early. Fred is forecast to move across the Gulf and is expected to make landfall in Florida Panhandle on Monday as it picks up strength in the Gulf of Mexico.

Fred Fcst Track.PNG

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the cooast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line.

Rainfall amounts are expected to reach 3-5 inches in the Florida Keys and southern Florida through Monday. In the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 4-8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected through Tuesday. South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western Carolinas will see 3- 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.

Fred Rainfall Forecast.PNG

UPDATE: 3 PM Friday, August 13

Tropical Depression Fred has been tracking across northern Cuba and is forecast to enter the Gulf and strengthen into a Tropical Storm as it moves over Key West early Saturday. It is expected to remain a tropical storm as it moves north-northeast through the eastern Gulf along the west coast of Florida this weekend, making landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Apalachicola late Sunday night.

Rainfall amounts of 3-7 inches is expected in it's path with locally up to 10 inches possible.

rainfall potential.PNG
wind speed prob.PNG

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, and Camaguey and the southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef.

For the middle Texas coast, an increased risk of rip currents and hazardous seas are possible early next week from this system.

Original post from Wednesday, Aug 11
The sixth named storm of the season, Fred, formed at 10 PM Tuesday night and is expected to be over Hispaniola this evening, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday.
Current stats
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts but weakening is expected tonight as the center crosses Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning Thursday night.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border eastward. Rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches are expected in it's path with local amounts as high as 8 inches.
Forecast Path
By Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Effects in South Texas
At this time, there are no imminent threats to South Texas. However, we will begin to experience impacts along the Middle Texas coast early next week as the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and increases wave periods. An increased risk of rip currents and hazardous seas are possible. Tide levels do not appear to be an issue at this time.

Watching Another Tropical Wave
We are also watching Invest 95-L which is out in the Atlantic and has a moderate chance of development in the next 5 days. Forecast models project it to remain on a westward track, making it into the Caribbean Sea late this weekend.

Invest 95-L Forecast Models