CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Winter is approaching and there is high confidence that a La Niña weather pattern will dominate again this winter, as it did the past two winters. This will be a "Triple Dip" La Niña since it's the third consecutive winter with this pattern which only happened twice since 1950.
La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Typically, La Niña events occur every 3 to 5 years or so, but on occasion can occur over successive years. This cooler water affects weather patterns in the U.S., especially during the months of December, January and February.
It's the opposite to the more well-known El Niño, which occurs when Pacific ocean water is warmer than average.
Although the affect it has on our winter weather depends on the strength of the La Niña, it's likely there will be some impacts across the United States this winter.
While it tends to be drier and warmer in the southern states and drier in parts of the west, the polar jet stream tends to send arctic air south into the northern plains states more frequently.
Impacts for the Coastal Bend
I checked the temperature and precipitation reports for the winter months (December-February) of 2020-21 and 2021-22 and found the average winter temperature both years came in below average. Also, both years the winter months came in with below average rainfall.
We had colder winter temperatures in 2020-21 with the big freeze in the middle of February as a moderate La Niña pattern persisted. The following winter (2021-22) was still cooler than normal but not as extreme as we had a mild December and the coldest temperatures in January-February. The La Niña was still moderate last year but not as strong as the 2020-21 season.
This winter La Niña is forecast to start off moderate, similar to last winter, but slowly weaken as we head into the spring months.
This points to another drier than normal winter in 2022-23 with highly variable temperatures. Periods of warm weather could quickly change as arctic fronts come in, more likely from mid January through early February.
Get the latest forecast at kztv10.com/weather. Get a live look at our radar at kristv.com/radar.
