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Quiet start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season for now-- will it last?

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CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Welcome to the first 'Hot Topics in the Tropics' of the 2025 season! If you've haven't already, check out the Hurricane Center on our website for all the resources you might need this Hurricane Season.

WEEK ONE: ALL QUIET IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
The first week of Hurricane Season has been relatively uneventful. Aside from an area of interest off the Southeast U.S. coast, the National Hurricane Center hasn't had much to track in the Atlantic Basin. Even then, the area in question was a non-tropical area of low pressure that had a low chance of development, ultimately dissipating just a few days later.

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook 6-2-2025
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook 6-2-2025

WHAT'S GOING ON ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN?
Sea-surface temperatures are currently sitting around 28-30 degrees Celsius (about 82-86ºF). This is about as 'cool' as the water temperature can get when it comes to tropical development. 'Tropical trouble' feeds off warm water temperatures of about 82ºF or warmer; cooler water just won't provide enough fuel for development. This is to be expected since there are still cold fronts swooping as far south as the Gulf Coast.

NOAA GULF SEA SURFACE TEMPS 6-4-2025
NOAA GULF SEA SURFACE TEMPS (6-4-2025)

This coupled with several batches of Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic Basin have generally kept this quiet.

Saharan dust tends to suppress thunderstorms in two ways:

  1. Dusty air from the Saharan desert is dry, making it difficult for thunderstorms to grow
  2. All those dust particles! Having so many specs of dust makes it difficult for water droplets to coalesce or combine into bigger cloud droplets or even bigger raindrops

WILL THE ATLANTIC REMAIN QUIET?
Good question! The short answer? Probably not.

As the sea surface temperature continues to warm and the Atlantic Ocean remains dusty, June and July is usually when 'tropical trouble' tends to brew in the Gulf. Of course, there are other weather conditions that must be present, such as weaker wind shear or areas of low pressure, for storms to develop.

Stick with your KRIS 6 Weather Experts for all of the latest developments this Hurricane Season!
Watch our hurricane special program Plan. Prepare. Survive. in the Hurricane Center or watch it June 7 at 5 p.m. on KRIS 6.

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