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LA NIÑA WATCH: El Niño is officially over and La Niña is likely this summer

Neutral phase in place right now
ENSO Phase nina nino neutral chances
Posted at 5:17 PM, Jun 14, 2024

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — El Niño is finally over! The warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has officially ended, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Here's the latest update on ENSO

  • ENSO Neutral phase currently ongoing
  • La Niña Watch is in effect
  • La Niña is likely to develop during July-September

What it could mean for the Atlantic hurricane season
While ENSO is currently in a neutral phase, that's not expected to last very long. La Niña is likely to develop as we head into the peak of hurricane season. That's not ideal because this cold phase of ENSO tends to promote activity in the tropics.

La Niña reduces wind shear across the Atlantic, which means there will be less wind shear to tear storms apart. This in combination with very warm sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic basin (Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico) means that conditions are ripe for an active hurricane season.

While hurricane season is expected to be very busy, it tells us nothing about where those storms will form. Still, the last time La Niña was in effect was during the historic 2020 and 2021 hurricane seasons. All this means is it's time to be prepared for anything this hurricane season brings to the Coastal Bend.

Are you ready for hurricane season? Check out the KRIS 6 Hurricane Center for helpful resources.