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Where tropical systems are most likely to form and track in July

July tropical systems formation
july tropical formation.PNG
Posted at 5:30 PM, Jul 01, 2022
and last updated 2022-07-01 18:30:00-04

July is generally a fairly quiet month in the tropics before the Atlantic hurricane season ramps up in August and September. The low amount of activity can be partially attributed to the Saharan Dust Layer that's usually present in the Atlantic and higher wind shear which discourages hurricane development.

However, tropical storms and hurricanes do occur in July and there have been some active years, including 2005 when 5 named storms formed. Just 2 years ago, category 1 Hurricane Hanna made landfall on July 25th, 2020 in south Texas. And in 2008, Hurricane Dolly made landfall approximately 80 miles south of Corpus Christi on July 23.

July named storms.jpg

In July, an area to watch for tropical development is the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Storms that form here often track northward or westward, depending on the placement of the Bermuda High that sits to the northeast. If a storm forms in this region, the northern and western Gulf Coast needs to keep a close watch on it.

Another common area for development in July is over the Gulf Stream, which is near the Bahamas and eastern United States. Storms that form here curve out to sea or track close to the East Coast.

Later in July, another area to watch is over and around the Lesser Antilles. Storms forming here often track to the west-northwest but can sometimes turn to the north, depending on steering currents.