WeatherHurricane HQ


Heavy rain a certainty with Gulf disturbance

Posted at 7:17 PM, Sep 12, 2018
and last updated 2018-09-12 20:17:22-04

The National Hurricane Center still gives a “high” probability that a tropical depression or storm forms in the Gulf by Thursday night. Regardless, heavy rain is headed to South Texas.

Tropical development

The tropical disturbance that has a possibility to develop in the Gulf of Mexico has been given a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Thursday night. The conditions will be moderately favorable for some development to occur overnight Wednesday into Thursday. However, this disturbance is definitely on the clock. If it doesn’t develop soon, it won’t get the chance to do so before moving onshore.

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the disturbance on Thursday, if necessary. The information that they gather will confirm how organized it which should give us a better idea of what type of development to expect.

Due to the slow progression of development, the storm is not likely to be very strong. However, regardless of strength, heavy rain is going to be a big threat given the multiple inches of rain that have fallen across the area this week alone.


  • The disturbance is likely to develop into a tropical depression or storm.
  • Whatever forms, it will be coming to the Texas coastline.
  • It is likely to be weak, if it even develops.
  • Rain will be the biggest threat, and we could see 3-5 inches with some locations receiving more than that.
  • Flooding is likely with heavier rainfall.


  • If the storm stays as a tropical wave—widespread rain is the main impact. This solution is MOST LIKELY.
  • If the storm becomes a tropical depression—widespread rain and winds of 30-39mph will be the impacts. This solution is POSSIBLE.
  • If the storm becomes a tropical storm—widespread rain and winds of greater than 39mph will be the impacts. This is the LEAST LIKELY solution.

Thursday’s forecast

More scattered rain is expected on Thursday.  Any new rainfall is going to cause more flash flooding due to the saturated ground.

Friday and Saturday

Friday is expected to be the day that the tropical disturbance (or whatever it develops into) moves into South Texas. Widespread rain is the forecast as a result, with flooding possible.

More rain is expected for Saturday as the disturbance is still moving through the area.

Possible Scenarios with Gulf Disturbance
Possible Scenarios with Gulf Disturbance