WeatherHurricane HQ


All eyes on the Gulf disturbance

Posted at 7:08 PM, Sep 11, 2018
and last updated 2018-09-11 20:08:45-04

An area of showers and storms over the southern Gulf of Mexico is now likely to develop into a tropical depression or storm as it moves closer to the Texas coast in the days ahead.

Tropical development

The tropical disturbance that has a possibility to develop is now in the Gulf of Mexico and the National Hurricane Center gives it a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm as of Tuesday evening. The conditions will be favorable for some development to occur by Wednesday and Thursday. This should have our careful attention, and your emergency plans and preparations should be ready to go.

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the disturbance on Wednesday. The information that they gather will confirm how organized it is and will give us good data to make better forecasts with.

As of right now, indications would suggest that the storm would not be very strong; however, the threat for heavy rain and flooding will exist regardless of what happens.


  • The disturbance is expected to develop into at least a tropical depression or storm.
  • Whatever forms, it will be coming to the Texas coastline.
  • It’s too early to comment on strength and timing.
  • Rain will be the biggest threat, but it’s too early to say how much we could see.

Wednesday’s forecast

More rain is anticipated to develop across the Coastal Bend overnight through Wednesday morning. Plan on allowing some extra time for a wet morning commute. As the day progresses, the rain will likely become less widespread and more scattered, very similar to Monday and Tuesday’s rain. Temperatures will be in the 80s again for most of the day, and a few folks may see some peeks of sun during the afternoon.

Thursday and Friday

The rain chances will still exist on Thursday, but it looks like they will be a good bit lower than Wednesday’s rain. By the latter half of the day on Thursday and all of Friday, we will be watching the tropics. The weather for this time will be highly dependent on what happens to the disturbance in the Gulf.  One thing that is for sure—the rain chances will pick back up.

Key Points for Gulf Disturbance
Key Points for Gulf Disturbance