CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — In this week's Hot Topics in the Tropics, we haven't had a whole lot of 'hot topics' to track here. Now that August has begun, that means hurricane season is kicking into high gear. If you've been enjoying the quiet tropical weather so far, heads up – the busiest stretch is right around the corner! August, September, and October are when things really get cooking in the Atlantic, with September 10 marking the official peak of hurricane season. I visited our partners at the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Corpus Christi to take the metaphorical temperature of the season.
"All the kids are starting to go back to school, so all the focus is on 'back to school' and it's kind of putting The Tropics in the afterthought," says Juan Carlos Peña, a meteorologist at NWS Corpus Christi.
Unlike 2024, this hurricane season hasn't really been eventful for us here in the Coastal Bend. There have been three named storms this season, which is average for this period. But as we head into August, we tend to see an uptick in activity, and "tropical trouble" can start just about anywhere across the Atlantic Basin. "With tropical storms or even hurricanes last year, with Hurricane Beryl that affected us in early July... so we haven't had that local flavor yet, but we still are about norm with the three storms," Peña says.
A major climate pattern could supercharge this season
You've heard of El Nino, but have you heard of the "MJO"? The Madden-Julian Oscillation is another climate pattern, or teleconnection, that could influence our hurricane season. Like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the MJO has diffrent phases that can either help or hurt hurricane development.
The MJO is moving into a phase that will make conditions more favorable for tropical development across the Atlantic Basin— and the timing could be better. Changes in the phase of MJO will take about 2-3 weeks to settle in. "As that starts to get better organized in the middle of August, we really won't see those effects until early to mid-September, which coincides with the peak of hurricane season," Peña says.
August: It's about to get busy!
Starting now, we tend to see a huge uptick in tropical activity across the Atlantic Basin. With just 6 weeks until the peak of hurricane season on September 10th, it's important to stay alert. There's a lot that goes into forecasting hurricane season. Take advantage of this 'quiet time' and review your hurricane plan with your family, make sure your supplies are good to go, and stay alert as we head into the peak of hurricane season ahead.
You can find resources to prepare for any tropical trouble in the Hurricane Center.
