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How wet will the Fourth be?

Posted: 8:10 AM, Jul 03, 2018
Updated: 2018-07-03 09:10:42-04
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N36zt365E34?rel=0&showinfo=0]

The forecast for the Fourth of July has a lot of uncertainty in it, but confidence is increasing in rain being scattered about the area. One thing that is very certain—if it rains, it will rain hard because our atmosphere will be loaded with moisture by that time.

Tuesday’s forecast

Not much changes as we head into Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the low 90s with heat indices over 105 degrees during the heat of the day. The morning will bring a mix of sun and clouds with mostly sunny skies taking over late in the day.

Fourth of July

An area of low pressure will be moving into Texas on Independence Day. Along with the low pressure will be a surge of moisture in the atmosphere. These ingredients coming together will definitely produce rain, but the question is when and where.

Unfortunately, the Coastal Bend will have a decent chance of rain during Wednesday afternoon and evening. Determining exactly when and where it will be raining during this period is not possible. What can be said is that there is a good chance of rain especially for areas north and northeast of Corpus Christi.

Rainfall looks very likely if you’re heading to the upper-Texas coastline or southeast Texas near Houston. As for the Coastal Bend, the chance for rain is highly dependent on the track of the area of low pressure. As of the current forecast track, Corpus Christi looks to see scattered rain especially late Wednesday through early Thursday. This could disrupt Independence Day festivities including the city’s fireworks display.

Canceling or changing plans will more than likely be a game-time decision, as the probability of rain will be highly dependent upon several specific and evolving details.

If the area of low pressure tracks a little further to the north than currently forecast, our rain chances go down significantly. However, if the low pressure tracks further to the south or right over top of us, then our rain chances will rise significantly. Any small changes in the forecast will alter our chance of rain and the chance of those fireworks displays being disrupted.

Bottom Line:

There are likely to be at least a few areas that see no rain, allowing plans to proceed without any issues. However, when deciding on whether to keep or cancel your plans, keep in mind that while rain in any given location cannot be determined ahead of time, the chance of rain for the area as a whole is increasing and scattered rain is likely.