Cold front arrives Thursday bringing rain & falling temperatures

Arctic air arrives this weekend, wintry precipitation possible
Posted at 5:19 PM, Feb 09, 2021
and last updated 2021-02-09 18:19:55-05

We have a lot to watch in the coming days as a big change in our weather moves in. There is confidence that we will cool down significantly but there is still some uncertainty on exactly how much and when. As new forecast model data comes in, we'll tweak the forecast and will have new information each day. For now, here is how it's looking. Please check the forecast daily as it could change.

We'll have one more mild day Wednesday with highs in the 70s before colder air moves into south Texas along with some rain Thursday. Isolated showers are possible Wednesday but will become more numerous Thursday as the cooler air arrives. After high temperatures near 70 Thursday, winds will shift to the north and cool us into the mid 40s by Friday morning.

Rain looks like it will end early Friday morning with a mostly cloudy and cool afternoon, in the 50s, dropping into the low 40s Friday night.

We'll stay in the lower 50s Saturday afternoon before much colder air moves in. An Arctic air mass will arrive late Saturday, dropping temperatures to freezing by Sunday morning. A few showers are possible Saturday as the Arctic air arrives.

It will stay cold Sunday, in the upper 30s to low 40s for afternoon highs with northerly winds at 15-20 mph making it feel more like the upper teens in the morning. The clouds will stick around with spotty light rain possible Sunday night.

An upper level wave will move in from the west Monday causing warm, moist air to override the shallow, very cold air at the surface. This will cause a cold rain to develop and turn to sleet at times early Monday as temperatures stay in the 30s. We could have some freezing rain early Monday morning before surface temperatures rise above freezing.

Northerly winds at 15-20 mph Monday will make it feel like the upper teens to low 20s in the morning. Wind chills in the afternoon will stay near 30 as actual temperatures reach the upper 30s. Rain will end Monday evening as the upper level wave moves east.

Tuesday morning is expected to be the coldest, possibly dropping into the mid to upper 20s. This will depend on how fast the clouds and rain move out Monday night. Nevertheless, it will be cold with a freeze likely Tuesday morning and afternoon highs only in the lower 40s.

The rest of next week we'll warm back up to near normal temperatures by the end of the work week.