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TAMUK professor links Super Bowl outcome to stock market performance

TAMUK professor links Super Bowl outcome to stock market performance
Posted at 8:50 PM, Feb 04, 2021
and last updated 2021-02-05 14:38:29-05

KINGSVILLE, Texas — Lots of people bet money on the Super Bowl.

But a study that a local professor is heavily involved in indicates you should bet on the stock market based off the big game's outcome.

“The Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor indicates that if the Super Bowl is won buy an NFC team, the stock market rises," Texas A&M University-Kingsville professor Dr. Thomas Krueger says. "If it’s won buy an AFC team, the stock market will tend to not do as well. In fact it could drop."

Krueger describes himself as one of the two 'lead investigators' who did first 'rigorous research' on the Predictor, and his findings can be found in an article in 'The Journal of Finance' -- a top trade magazine in the industry.

The numbers are updated every year.

With Super Bowl LV set to be played on Sunday, Krueger says the predictor has been right about the stock market's performance 40 times out of the last 54 years.

So if Tampa Bay from the National Football Conference beats Kansas City from the American Football Conference, Krueger has some advice for investors.

"You’d want to go out and buy stock,” he said.

Krueger says it's important to note the Super Bowl's outcome doesn't actually impact the performance of the stock market.

“Correlation is not necessarily causation," he said. "So the Super Bowl happened to be correlated with the performance of the stock market. It doesn’t necessarily cause performance in the stock market.”

And there's another predictor -- simply believing the stock market will rise every year -- that actually outpaces the one Krueger researches.

“Last year that assumption was correct," he said. "The Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor was wrong. So that very naive assumption, ‘buy stock — it’s going to go up,’ is actually now better.”

Krueger says the stock market may have risen 41 out of the past 54 years, but it's more fun for him to put stock in the outcome of the Super Bowl.

"It’s just a way for us to spend a little time waiting for the Super Bowl and talk about stocks at the same time," he said.